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Swiss-hosted summit aims to start peace process for Ukraine
Washington — The Swiss-hosted Ukraine Peace Summit will take place Saturday and Sunday at the Burgenstock Resort on Lake Lucerne with about 90 countries participating. The Swiss government says the summit aims to "inspire a future peace process" that could eventually involve Russia and build a "just and lasting peace" for Ukraine rooted in international law.
It's been nearly 28 months since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, causing heavy casualties on both sides in a war that has displaced millions of Ukrainians.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initiated the summit to gather international support for his peace plan. The 10 points in Zelenskyy's "peace formula" include the full withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, including Crimea and Russian-occupied areas in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Russia has not been invited to the summit. The Swiss government says there was no invitation because Russia had no intention of attending. Moscow called a peace summit without its participation "futile."
But Russia is not the only major player skipping the talks.
Who is attending? Who is absent?
China will also be absent from the summit.
China’s Foreign Ministry said at the end of May that Beijing “is hardly able to take part in the meeting” because a peace summit without Russia would not meet China's expectations. Beijing said the peace conference "should have the recognition of Russia and Ukraine, equal participation of all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans."
China issued its “Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" in February 2023, touting it as a peace plan. But the 12 principles in the plan were just repeats of Beijing’s long-held positions that critics say are more favorable to Russia.
The United States and Ukraine have urged China to participate many times before. Zelenskyy, at the Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month, accused China of pressuring other countries to boycott the peace summit, which Beijing denied.
Kyiv has invited about 160 countries and organizations to attend the summit. The Swiss government said on Monday that about 90 countries — almost half of them from Europe — have confirmed their participation, and that most of the participants are heads of state or government.
Ukraine's biggest ally, the United States, will send Vice President Kamala Harris and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. President Joe Biden will reportedly miss the summit due to a campaign fundraiser. Zelenskyy said Russian President Vladimir Putin would give Biden's absence a "standing ovation."
The White House told the media that the United States is a staunch supporter of Ukraine. In a June speech commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landing, Biden promised “we will not walk away” from Ukraine, connecting Europe’s World War II fight against Nazi invaders to Ukraine’s fight against Russian ones.
Also confirmed are leaders of the European Union, the European Commission, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Spain, Poland, Moldova, Ireland, Iceland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Latvia, Sweden, Croatia, Luxembourg, Cape Verde and Chile.
In addition to its Western allies, Kyiv has focused on inviting nations from the Global South — a term used to describe less-developed countries — and has made efforts to win their support for the summit. Compared with Western countries, most Global South countries are neutral or somewhat pro-Russian on the war.
Winning the support of these countries is key for Ukraine to pressure Russia in future talks. "The more such countries we have on our side ... the more Russia will have to deal with this," Zelenskyy said last month in an interview with AFP.
Turkey confirmed on Wednesday that it would send its foreign minister to the peace summit.
India's Ministry of External Affairs said on Wednesday it would send officials of "appropriate level" to the summit, while confirming that it would not be newly reelected Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand have all confirmed their attendance, but with deputy ministerial-level officials instead of top leaders.
Invited countries that have not yet confirmed include Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Pakistan. Although Pakistan and Ukraine have strong defense cooperation, Russia is also an important oil supplier to the country.
What will be discussed?
The Swiss government says the main task of the peace summit is to drive the future peace process, including:
Beginning a dialogue on how to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine under international law and the U.N. Charter.
Promoting consensus on a possible "peace framework."
Determining a roadmap on how to involve both Russia and Ukraine in the process.
Ukraine has said the summit will focus on three issues that could win the support of various countries and produce action plans:
Freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, allowing Ukraine to export grains and protect global food security.
Agreement on a call to stop the bombing of nuclear energy infrastructure.
Release of all prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children who were taken to Russia. The International Criminal Court in March 2023 issued an arrest warrant for Putin over the abductions, which Russia has denied.
Mark Cancian, senior adviser for the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said he expects many attendees to remain neutral on the war.
"Zelenskyy will want to turn the conference into an anti-Russian coalition,” he told VOA. “However, some of the attendees may want to explore end states that are short of what Ukraine wants — for example, some sort of in-place cease-fire.”
Cancian said the peace summit’s final communique will be important because it will indicate whether Zelenskyy has sustained international support or whether “international desires for peace are overwhelming Ukraine's desire for victory."
Zelenskyy’s three issues for the summit are part of a 10-point peace plan announced in 2022 that includes the "nonnegotiable" point of restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity. The territories include not only eastern and southern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia since 2022 but also Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
Russia has rebuffed Ukraine's peace proposals, saying it will not give up a single inch of Ukrainian territory it seized, which amounts to about a fifth of Ukraine's total area.
Many analysts believe that Ukraine’s bargaining power in future negotiations with Russia depends mainly on its momentum in the war.
The Ukrainian army is currently facing pressure on the battlefield, compared to last summer's offensive, with a shortage of ammunition and manpower and difficulty recruiting soldiers.
Shelby Magid, deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center, said in an article, "There will ultimately be a time for diplomacy, but Ukraine needs to make significant progress militarily for the time to be right."
But many Ukrainians and their overseas supporters warn that a deal that allows Russia to gobble up large swathes of Ukrainian territory by force would weaken the West and embolden Moscow to take similar actions in the future.
VOA’s Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
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Putin's North Korea visit about 'more than pleasantries'
Seoul, South Korea — When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited eastern Russia in September, a big part of his mission seemed clear: look at as many Russian weapons as possible.
During his highly publicized multi-day visit, Kim climbed to the cockpit of one of Russia’s most advanced fighter jets, examined nuclear-capable strategic bombers, and toured a warship in Russia’s Pacific Fleet.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also gave Kim a personal tour of the Vostochny Cosmodrome, the country's most modern space rocket launch site, where he acknowledged that Russia would help North Korea build satellites.
Though the interactions underscored growing defense ties between Moscow and Pyongyang, no formal agreements were announced during the meetings, surprising some observers.
But when Putin soon visits North Korea for the first time in 24 years, there may be more than just handshakes, according to some analysts, who say the two sides have likely been working to cement burgeoning military cooperation.
“I would expect some sort of formal outcome from the visit, rather than an exchange of pleasantries,” said Alexey Muraviev, who focuses on national security and strategic studies at Australia’s Curtin University.
Russian authorities have confirmed Putin’s planned visit but have not provided any dates. On Wednesday, South Korean authorities said the visit would likely occur in the next “few days.”
On Friday, senior U.S. and South Korean diplomats held an emergency phone call about Putin’s impending visit. According to Seoul, both sides warned that Putin's trip should not result in any violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions, which ban a wide range of economic and military interaction with Pyongyang.
Ups and downs
Russia has for decades been one of North Korea's most important economic and military supporters, along with China. But ties have sometimes been rocky.
As recently as 2017, Russia — a permanent, veto-wielding member of the U.N. Security Council — supported international sanctions in response to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons advancements.
Since then, Putin and Kim have found reasons to work together, as each wages their own campaign against Western influence.
After walking away from talks with the United States in 2019, Kim has dramatically expanded his nuclear arsenal, which he says is aimed at deterring the United States and its regional allies.
Putin, meanwhile, launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and has since fought Western-backed forces there.
Shortly after Russia’s invasion, Kim became one of only a handful of world leaders to express explicit support for Putin’s war.
Independent observers have found North Korean weapons, including missiles, on the Ukrainian battlefield, confirming U.S. government assertions that North Korea is providing Russia with munitions.
The development is consistent with Russia’s increasing boldness about conducting activities that may explicitly violate U.N. sanctions, which Moscow says it now opposes.
Putin’s visit
Putin may still proceed cautiously in Pyongyang. He is not likely to fully or explicitly abandon U.N. sanctions, since Moscow has an interest in portraying itself as a responsible stakeholder that respects international law, according to Muraviev.
Muraviev said Russia may “raise its middle finger to the West,” however, by continuing to gradually degrade U.N. sanctions against North Korea.
“Russia is now under even more sanctions than North Korea, so if Russia violates the international sanctions regime, what can Russia suffer from more than what’s already been coming its way as a result of its aggressive actions in Ukraine?” he asked.
Putin could also use his North Korea trip to underscore further support for North Korea’s satellite program.
Since Kim’s visit to Russia, North Korea has conducted two satellite launches. Though its most recent launch failed, defense analysts said North Korea’s use of a new type of carrier rocket suggested Russian assistance.
Though U.N. sanctions remain a significant restraint on Russia-North Korea cooperation, both sides may find economic ways to cooperate, such as sending North Korean laborers to Russia, said Artyom Lukin, a professor at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University.
“Russia has never said that it’s going to stop observing UNSC sanctions on North Korea. But you know, there are ways to manage some things like this — just look at China,” Lukin told VOA. “I think Russia might follow the same pattern in some ways.”
Lukin refused to speculate about how exactly Russia may support North Korea’s weapons programs, but he acknowledged that Russia “seems to be the only major power which can provide some stuff which can make North Korea feel safe.”
Lukin said it is impossible to know whether expanded Russia-North Korea cooperation will outlast the Ukraine war, but he hinted that longer-term interests were at play.
“I think it’s fair to call the relationship between Russia and [North Korea] a de facto alignment,” Lukin said. “We don’t know yet whether this alignment will transition to a real alliance or not, but I wouldn't rule it out.”
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There was no immediate comment from the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF.
Gibril was a leading commander for the RSF in al-Fashir, the last major city in the Darfur region of Sudan that the paramilitary force does not control.
The army said in a statement Yacoub was killed as an RSF attack was thwarted early Friday by its troops and allied "joint forces" fighting alongside it — a reference to non-Arab former rebel groups from Darfur that are aligned with the army.
The RSF has been besieging al-Fashir, a city of 1.8 million people, for weeks, and top United Nations officials have warned that the worsening conflict there could trigger widespread intercommunal violence.
The U.N. Security Council called Thursday for a halt to the siege.
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The conflict has led to the world's largest displacement crisis, renewed ethnic violence in Darfur blamed on the RSF and its allies, and a sharp increase in extreme hunger.
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Chinese premier to visit Australia as tensions ease, trade ties resume
SYDNEY — Chinese Premier Li Qiang will touch down in Australia Saturday, becoming the most senior Chinese visitor in over seven years.
His arrival symbolizes the greatly improved relationship between Beijing and Canberra, following a turbulent patch that saw China impose tough trade restrictions on Australia.
Li will land in the South Australian city of Adelaide, before heading to Canberra for a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. He will wrap up his trip with a visit to Perth.
While trade ties will dominate much of the agenda, Australian analysts say they see the visit of China's second most powerful official as a crucial step on the return to more normal relations.
"This visit signals that the bilateral relationship has reached a new settling point, after many, many years of a huge amount of sound and fury and drama and tension," Benjamin Herscovitch, a research fellow at the Australian National University, told VOA.
"We're now reaching this new settling point of a rough, uneasy normalization of the relationship between Australia and China," Herscovitch said.
The roots of the breakdown of relations between Canberra and Beijing can be traced to 2018, when Australia became the first country to ban Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from its 5G network.
Two years later, Albanese's predecessor, Scott Morrison, angered China when he led calls for an international investigation into the origins of COVID-19.
As the relationship soured, China slapped a host of tariffs and restrictions on a variety of Australian goods and commodities including barley, wine and coal. The sanctions are estimated to have cost the Australian economy over $13 billion.
"China's strategy did not just impose trade restrictions in the form of various different measures that were economically coercive, but also denied Canberra diplomatic access to Beijing," Herscovitch said.
"This was essentially part of a punishment campaign for Australia," he added.
Beijing was further irked by Australia's enhanced military ties with Western countries, including a new AUKUS security alliance which was announced with the United States and the United Kingdom in 2021.
The partnership will allow Australia to acquire nuclear submarine capability, specifically to counter growing concerns over China's ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region.
These tensions led to an almost total breakdown in diplomatic relations between Australia and China.
The formation of a new Australian government in 2022 provided an opportunity for a fresh start, with Albanese keen to resume dialogue with Australia's biggest trading partner.
His meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 in Bali later that year, opened the door to the resumption of high-level talks, with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visiting Beijing just a month after that summit.
Further progress was made when Albanese traveled to China last November, paving the way for the resumption of annual leaders' meetings.
"It's a significant sign that the Australian government has reached its goal of 'stabilising' relations," Melissa Conley Tyler, an honorary fellow at the University of Melbourne's Asia Institute, said.
"During this visit, messaging will be around Australia as a country that is 'friendly' to China - which makes a difference to officials, importers and parents choosing where their children will study," Tyler told VOA.
Li's visit will take in three Australian states, providing plentiful opportunities for handshakes and photo opportunities, although analysts are less certain of more substantial results aside from diplomatic goodwill.
"It is unlikely the visit will yield any major announcements – both sides have been careful to stress throughout these types of exchanges that dialogue is in itself the focus and the achievement," Elena Collinson, head of analysis for the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney, said.
One area that could see a breakthrough is the removal of Chinese trade restrictions on Australian lobster.
As relations improved under the Albanese administration, Beijing rolled back almost all of the trade barriers that had been erected against Australia, but a ban on live lobster imports remains.
It is widely expected that this ban will be reversed, although the timing of any such announcement will be closely watched.
"China will want to say that there has been a scientific, technical resolution of the issue, and therefore they can remove the trade restrictions," Herscovitch said.
"But they wouldn't want it too closely associated with the premier's visit, even though everyone understands that it was a politically motivated trade restriction and so the removal of it is also politically motivated," Herscovitch added.
Beijing's so-called 'panda diplomacy' will be on full display during the trip, with Li set to visit Adelaide Zoo to view Wang Wang and Fu Ni, two pandas that were loaned to Australia in 2009.
The arrangement is set to expire at the end of this year, but it is hoped that Li could announce an extension of their stay in the southern hemisphere.
The premier's trip to the mining hub of Western Australia will also boost hopes of further enhanced trade ties, with Li set to attend a roundtable event organized by the Business Council of Australia. Beijing still relies heavily on Australia for critical commodities including iron ore.
While this visit should further stabilize a recovering diplomatic relationship, the Chinese premier has work to do to gain the support of the Australian public.
Recent polling, partly conducted by the Australia-China Relations Institute, found a high level of anxiety over China's future ambitions.
"Nearly three-quarters of Australians see China as a security threat, while half see military conflict with China within the next three years as a serious possibility," Collinson said.
"While support for the economic dimension of the relationship remains, even this is starting to waver," Collinson added.
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Report: Southeast Asia scam centers swindle billions
BANGKOK — Southeast Asia is seeing a rise in online scam centers that are swindling billions of dollars from people, a new report finds.
Transnational Crime in Southeast Asia, published in May by the United States Institute of Peace, outlines a growing threat it says criminal networks pose to global peace and security. Included in the report are findings about scam centers operating throughout the region, including in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, and the deep involvement of Chinese criminal networks.
The USIP report was presented in Bangkok in June at an event held at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Thailand.
"One of the big findings of the report is about how huge of a problem this is. We’re framing it as a global security crisis," Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at USIP, said.
"There are three countries in particular in which it’s gotten to a point now where the Chinese-origin criminal groups are able to perpetrate industrial scale, online scamming forced labor: Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. There are over 300,000 people involved in this horrific practice," he added.
A total of 305,000 scammers in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos account for $39 billion in stolen funds annually, out of a total of $63.9 billion worldwide, according to the report. Half a million people are working as scammers, the report estimates.
The scammers, though, are often initially victims themselves. Many are lured into false business opportunities overseas and forced into scam compounds, often located in desolate rural areas, and are punished violently if they try to escape.
Bridget Welsh, a Malaysia-based political analyst on Southeast Asia, spoke at the event and said artificial intelligence technology, lax financial regulations regarding cryptocurrency, money laundering and the gray areas between legal and illegal practices contribute to the problem.
"In the last four years, the level of escalation of the criminal ecosystem is profound. There are a number of factors we need to look at. It’s not just the networks or just about China, it’s about local actors that have a symbiotic relationship. Southeast Asia for a long time has had a very dynamic illegal economy," she said.
In recent years there has been a rise in scams around online gambling, cryptocurrency and financial investment. Often, the scams involve enticing victims to gradually invest in fake and fraudulent schemes over a period of time. The victims are targeted online to invest, gamble or deposit money into illegitimate schemes, not knowing they are being scammed.
The ongoing conflict in Myanmar has resulted in some scam operations finding themselves a part of the battle. Scam compounds along Myanmar’s borders have been protected and run by affiliates of the military government in Myanmar, the USIP report said.
The northern Myanmar town of Laukkai, in Shan State, is known as a scam center hotspot, with many Chinese gangs operating there, according to the report.
Myanmar’s ruling junta – the State Administrative Council – did not comment on the USIP report and questions asked by VOA about the scam centers but did respond via email that there is use of digital currencies in the country.
"It has come to our attention that illegal transactions involving digital currencies, including USDT [Tether, a cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar], are being conducted within the country. These activities are in violation of the Anti-Money Laundering Act and the Financial Institutions Act," it said, adding that those who violate the act "may be subject to imprisonment or fines, or both."
VOA has contacted the governments of China and Cambodia by email and phone but has not received a reply.
But with Myanmar resistance groups now reportedly in control of Laukkai, they have worked with Beijing to hand over cyber gang families. More than 40,000 Chinese nationals associated with cyber scams in Myanmar have reportedly been deported from Myanmar to China as of December.
Chinese criminal networks collected $3.8 billion in illegal revenue from scams in 2023, with the help of at least 30,000 scammers. The USIP says within the past decade, the criminal networks operating in Southeast Asia have mostly emerged from China.
"Many of these Chinese criminal origins became embedded in the [Southeast Asia] region. In the past five years, the forms of criminality have shifted from things that are more regional to global in Asia, and they’ve reached the point now where they can get much more involved in human trafficking and slavery, and quite sophisticated forms of scamming that are targeting a global audience," Tower said at the FCCT in Bangkok.
At home, Beijing has tried to take a firm hand on scams.
Online gambling is illegal in China and a telecom fraud law came into effect in December 2022 to try to combat the illegal schemes.
"The report finds that [China] is one of the key victim countries," Tower said. "More and more people are falling prey to these investment scams."
With cyber networks operating over multiple countries, all with different priorities and accountability, combating the scams is a challenge.
Criminal networks in Cambodia have seen a $12.5 billion return in 2023 on their scamming operations, half of the country’s official gross domestic product. The USIP report says many of the scamming compounds in Cambodia are owned by local elites.
"The significantly misaligned incentives in places like Cambodia, where there are powerful state actors who are building [scam] compounds, it is not in the incentives to local government officials to properly identify these victims. How do we prosecute this effectively when entire justice systems are run by people who run compounds who are financially benefiting from them?" asked Jacob Sims, a visiting expert at USIP.
Chou Bun Eng, permanent vice chair of Cambodia’s National Committee for Counter Trafficking or NCCT, told the pro-government newspaper Khmer Times, that 80% of human trafficking cases they’ve investigated are "false."
A coalition operation is required, Welsh said, as a one-country strategy won’t work.
"Ordinary Southeast Asians are on the front line of having to deal with this. The trafficking numbers are high in terms of scams, but the scam victims are high. A lot can be done. It needs to be multifaceted, it can’t just be country specific, it needs to be dynamic, because the criminals are ahead of all of us," she said.
Erin West, a deputy district attorney from California, suggested pressuring tech companies and governments to act.
"The roots of the problem are the platforms enabling the scammers to meet their victims. What can be done about Meta, LinkedIn, Match.com — how do we apply pressure in a way to get them to root out the bad actors on their platforms?
"Looking at sanctions is another way, and really elevating the conversation to the highest levels of governments and getting them to understand how massive this problem is," she said.