The Demographic Outlook: 2022 to 2052

Daniel Crown
Date of Publication: 
July, 2022
Source Organization: 
Congressional Budget Office

This report explains the population projections that underlie the CBO’s economic forecasts and future budget projections. Over the next 30 years, CBO projects U.S. population growth to slow, while immigration becomes an increasingly important component of population growth, until by the end of the period, immigration accounts for all of our population growth. The report makes projections of the fertility rate (the number of children born to each woman), the mortality rate, and net immigration. The report notes that net immigration dropped during the Great Recession and had not recovered by the time policies adopted during the pandemic caused an even steeper decline. By 2052, the CBO projects net immigration to be 1.1 million per year — still 400,000 less than it was in the early 2000s. By the end of the period, the number of deaths are projected to exceed births, so that without immigration, the U.S. population would enter a downward trajectory. (Maurice Belanger, Maurice Belanger Associates)

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Crown, D. (2022, July). The Demographic Outlook: 2022 to 2052. Congressional Budget Office.