It Is Too Simple to Call 2021 a Record Year for Migration at the U.S.-Mexico Border

The author argues that comparing the number of migrants crossing the border in 2021 with those crossing in 2000 -- the year with the highest recorded number of crossings -- is not straightforward. Many factors make a direct comparison difficult or meaningless. The author explains that differences in counting methods, staffing levels, detection technology, the composition of migrant flows, recidivism rates, as well as the likelihood of entering without being detected, all make comparison difficult. To give one example, the pandemic-era expulsion policy under Title 42 allows U.S. authorities to expel migrants without formally processing them for removal, so there are no penalties for subsequent crossing attempts. This reverses recent policies that escalated consequences for repeat crossers and thus reduced the number of individuals who tried to cross multiple times. The author concludes by stating that, while the number of border encounters in 2021 was higher than in recent years, the number of unique individuals crossing the border was likely smaller in 2021 than in 2000. (Maurice Belanger, Maurice Belanger Associates)

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